Credit Suisse risks moderate, eye on Silicon Valley bank hearing
Release Date:2023-03-28 Author:SIRIUS
Influenced by important factors yesterday:

1. Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter: Credit Suisse, which is in trouble, has encountered a crisis of investor confidence. If the Swiss government was not forced to intervene and save it, Credit Suisse might not even have a chance to last a trading day

2. Germany's IFO business climate index in March was better than market expectations

3. UK March CBI retail sales difference is better than market expectations

4. European Central Bank executive member Schnabel urged the European Central Bank to issue a statement to indicate that further interest rate hikes are possible in the future

5. The Dallas Fed's business activity index in March fell short of market expectations

6. Barr, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve for Financial Supervision: We will closely monitor the status of the banking system

7. Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England: British inflation may fall sharply, the economy is stronger than expected, but wages are weak

8. Minister of Defense of Ukraine: Tanks and chariot equipment from Britain, the United States and Germany have been received

*Forex products:

     Yesterday (27th) Credit Suisse's risk cooled, and safe-haven funds sold the yen, driving the US and Japan to rise by about 130 points. Positive economic data in the Eurozone and the optimism expressed by the Swiss Finance Minister about aiding Credit Suisse helped Europe and the United States and the Pound and the United States to rise by more than 50 points, which also caused the U.S. dollar index to fall by about 35 points, dragging the U.S. and Canada down by about 90 points. In the evening, the U.S. released poor economic data, and U.S. officials said they would closely monitor bank liquidity, which also kept the U.S. dollar index around 102.50 for consolidation.

*gold:

     On Monday (27th), the risk of Credit Suisse cooled down, and the safe-haven funds sold gold, causing the price to drop by about US$30. In the evening, the economic data released by the United States was negative for the dollar, which drove the price of gold to rebound to around $1955.

*Global stock indexes and US crude oil:

     Yesterday (27th), positive economic data in the euro zone and the cooling of Credit Suisse risk drove the German index to rise by more than 1%, driving the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq to rise. In the evening, the U.S. released poor economic data. The Dow Jones and the Nasdaq both fell more than 200 points. The economic data in the euro zone is positive for the rise of European and American stock indexes, which drives up the price of U.S. oil. In the evening, the Ukrainian Defense Minister said that he had received tanks and chariot equipment from Britain, the United States and Germany. Geopolitics heating up allowed safe-haven funds to replenish U.S. oil, driving the price to expand by more than 4%. It stayed above $72.50 in late trading.

Today's trading hotspots:

*Forex products:

     Today (28th), U.S. officials said that they are closely monitoring the banking and financial system. Asian markets are worried about the unrest in Silicon Valley Bank, and selling the U.S. dollar caused the index to drop by about 20 points. It is expected that Bank of England Governor Bailey said today that deflation is expected to drop sharply, which may cause Europe, the United States and GBP to fall. It is expected that most of the economic data released by the United States today will be poor, which may cause the U.S. dollar index to expand its decline.

     Today (28th), Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that risk aversion in the financial market is good for the yen. Once the US and Japan fall below the 5-day moving average of 131.02, it is recommended to operate short-term. It is expected that the Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, will continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation today. If the pound and the dollar hold the mid-hour Bollinger Band at 1.2293, it is recommended to operate short and long. It is expected that the economic data released by the United States today will be negative for the dollar. Once Europe and the United States break through the 5-day moving average of 1.0809, it is recommended to operate short-term and long-term.

*gold:

     Yesterday (27th), Credit Suisse’s risk cooled, and the safe-haven funds sold gold, causing the price to drop by about US$30. It rebounded to around US$1955 in late trading. It is expected that most of the economic data released by the United States today (28th) will be unfavorable and negative for the US dollar. If the price of gold stays at the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 1957 US dollars, it is recommended to operate short and long.

*Global stock indexes and US crude oil:

     Yesterday (27th), the U.S. released poor economic data, and the market worried that Bank of America may have another problem, causing the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq to reverse and fall by more than 200 points. It is expected that today (28th) Bank of England Governor Bailey will reiterate interest rate hikes to curb inflation. If the German index does not exceed the 60-day moving average of 15,221, short-term operations are recommended. It is expected that most of the economic data released by the United States today will be poor. If the Nasdaq falls below the 5-day moving average of 12,697, short-term operations are recommended.

     Yesterday (27th), the Ukrainian Defense Minister said that he had received tanks and chariot equipment from the United Nations. Geopolitics warming up favored the price of U.S. oil, which bucked the trend and rose by more than 4%. It consolidated above $72.50 in late trading. It is expected that today (28th) the U.S. will announce a bad economy and the stock index will fall. The price of U.S. oil will not exceed the 20-day moving average of $73. It is recommended to operate short-term.

Today's important economic data and financial events:

16:45 Bank of England Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Woods and Ramsden participate in the hearing of the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on Silicon Valley Bank

21:00 US January FHFA house price index monthly rate

21:00 US January S&P/CS 20 big city house price index annual rate

22:00 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March

22:00 U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index

22:00 The U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank incident, and Fed Governor Barr will attend

Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week from March 24 (10,000 barrels)

Disclaimer: The content written by foreign exchange is the interpretation and analysis of real-time market conditions by special analysts. Any point of view does not constitute operational advice. Please reasonably evaluate your risk tolerance and make trading decisions independently. SIRIUS is not responsible for any transaction consequences based on the above viewpoints.